India's outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) nosedived to $11.12 billion in January-June (H1 2023) from $23.57 billion in the same period last year, indicative of the slowdown in the global economy, according to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data. The outward FDI expressed as the total financial commitment, has three components, namely equity, loan and guarantees. The sharp contraction in the commitments (outward FDI) was prominent in the April-June 2023 period.
The Indian rupee, which has depreciated 1.1 per cent so far in August, is expected to decline further on the back of a strengthening US dollar and a weakening Chinese yuan, according to a Business Standard poll of analysts. The Indian rupee hit an all-time low recently, closing at 83.15 per dollar. Five of the 10 respondents said the Indian currency might touch 83.5 per dollar in August itself, while others said the worst could be over.
A step away from nuclear weapons being used in conflicts, warns Colonel Anil A Athale (retd).
Indian economy is expected to clock an average growth rate of 6.7 per cent till 2026-27 fiscal driven by domestic consumption, S&P Global Ratings senior Economist (Asia Pacific) Vishrut Rana said on Wednesday. He said the economic growth in the current fiscal is expected to come in around 6 per cent, lower than 7.2 per cent clocked in 2022-23. "We are seeing some headwinds from the trade side which is affecting activity and that is one of the factors that is affecting growth this year," Rana said at a webinar.
Tharman Shanmugaratnam, an Indian-origin Singapore-born economist, registered a landslide victory in Singapore's presidential election on Friday, winning over 70 per cent of votes in the country's first contested presidential polls since 2011.
Reflecting subdued global economic growth, India's outward foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 33.3 per cent sequentially to $1.21 billion in August, compared to over $1.82 billion in July.
The overall growth rate would see a better performance from agriculture and allied services and the sector is expected to grow by 4 per cent in 2010-11, up from a negative growth of 0.2 per cent in 2009-10. The services sector too is expected to show an improvement in growth in the current financial year to 9.3 per cent, up from 8.1 per cent in 2009-10.
Women account for 35 per cent of the 860,000 people employed in startups in 2022, compared to 19 per cent in the corporate sector.
As a percentage contributor to nominal GDP, PFCE's share was 60.1 per cent in FY23, compared with 59.6 per cent and 60.8 per cent in the two preceding fiscal years. "Although PFCE is expected to grow 7.7 per cent in FY23, we believe it is still short of a broad-based recovery. "The current consumption demand is highly skewed in favour of goods and services consumed largely by the households falling in the upper income bracket. "A broad-based consumption recovery, therefore, is still some distance away," said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist with India Ratings.
'In economic matters governments should not take sides based on religion and caste,' says T C A Srinivasa-Raghavan.
Balakrishnan, a full professor in the economics department who joined the private university in 2015, on Saturday wrote to Ashoka University Chancellor Rudrangshu Mukherjee and board of trustees chairperson Pramath Raj Sinha explaining his reasons for his resignation.
India might be heading towards a "serious livelihood crisis" as the situation seems to be worse this time for the working class amid the COVID crisis and local restrictions by states already add up to something close to a nationwide lockdown, according to noted economist Jean Dreze. In an interview to PTI, he also said the government's target to make India a $5 trillion economy by 2024-25 was never a "feasible target" and was just to pander to the "super-power ambitions" of the Indian elite. About the impact of the second wave of COVID on the Indian economy, the eminent economist said the situation today is not very different from what it was around this time last year as far as working people are concerned.
They believe that the key reason behind such a high growth rate could be "a steep downward revision" of the year-ago base period.
'As long as economic growth remains steady, creating jobs and generating stable incomes, the rise in home loans should not create problems.' 'If the growth trajectory changes course over the medium term and interest rates rise along with inflation, the expanding trend in home loans may not sustain.'
The state's joblessness is three times higher than the national average of 7.8 per cent.
The Indian economy has recovered 'handsomely' from the pandemic-induced disruptions, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Tuesday, while expressing hope that the recovery will be sustained and the growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent will be restored. Panagariya suggested that the government must now signal its intention to wind down fiscal deficit by cutting it by half-to-one percentage point in 2022-23. "The Indian economy has recovered handsomely, returning to its pre-COVID GDP... "Only private consumption is still below its pre-COVID-19 level," the eminent economist told PTI in an interview.
The days of anti-reform, anti-growth advisers that undermined our economy in the UPA-II years will now be strictly behind us: Bhagwati
The Taliban dispensation in Afghanistan has said that India will resume work in at least 20 stalled projects in several provinces across the war-torn country.
India's inclusion in JP Morgan's bond index can channel billions of dollars into India. How will the government securities market handle it?
The rupee's recent decline is sharp, yes, he says, but the tale would be scary if India was like the Asian crisis countries of 1997-98, or even Argentina in 2001, when large amounts of debt was denominated in foreign currency. According to him, India's percentage of external debt to GDP was around 20
Domestic equity markets are in elite company. In May, Indian markets joined select developed markets (DMs) such as the US, UK and Germany to record new all-time highs. Among emerging markets (EMs), Brazil is the other market to have logged new highs this month. Asian peers such as South Korea, Taiwan and New Zealand are currently between 2 per cent and 10 per cent below their previous highs made earlier this year. The domestic markets were among the worst-performing major global markets in April amid a lethal second-wave of covid-19 infections.
The challenge for the RBI in 2024 is likely to be less about containing elevated inflation and more about curbing excessive financial market exuberance and a 'problem of plenty', notes Sajjid Chinoy, Chief India Economist JP Morgan.
The slowdown in corporate revenue growth over the last one year has begun to reflect in India Inc's capital expenditure, or capex. The country's top listed companies are going slow on fresh investment in capacity expansion, in line with a deceleration in their top line growth. The combined fixed assets of the listed companies, excluding banking, finance services and insurance (BFSI) and the government-owned oil & gas firms, were up 10.1 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) during April-September 2023 (H1FY24) - the slowest in 18 months - as against 21.1 per cent Y-o-Y growth in H2FY23 (October 2022-March 2023) and 11.6 per cent growth in the April-September 2022 period (H1FY23).
'Does anyone understand India?' 'Does anyone have a larger perspective for India as a whole?' 'Today we have rulers who do not understand the ruled.'
In 1930, John Maynard Keynes predicted that by 2030 technology would be so advanced that three hours of work per day would suffice. Has AI brought about the transformation that Keynes predicted, asks Atanu Biswas.
India must evolve its own standards on how democracy must be ranked in a diverse and multi-religious, multi-ethnic, multi-lingual and pluralistic idea called India, suggests R Jagannathan.
India's economy grew 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022-23, pushing up the annual growth rate to 7.2 per cent, official data showed on Wednesday.
The rally in PSBs, analysts feel, was more a knee-jerk reaction to the development, and the actual benefits will start to accrue once the addition takes place in 2024. "The actual benefit for banks from the inclusion in JP Morgan's EM Index will accrue from June 2024 onwards. "Until then, the larger fundamentals of the market will dictate the moves. "Once the initial euphoria subsides, bond markets will look to global cues which may trigger fresh selling," said Siddharth Khemka, head of retail research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Gandhi, who is being attacked by the BJP for his 'democracy under attack' in India remarks in the UK, had addressed a press conference in the national capital on Thursday, after being disallowed from defending himself inthe Lok Sabha and said if Indian democracy was functioning, he would be able to say his piece in Parliament, asserting that it is a 'test of democracy'.
He did not believe in any fiscal puritanism. In 2012, when it was almost certain that the government will breach the 2012-13 fiscal deficit target, he wrote that in abnormal times, abnormal measures are required to get back to normalcy.
Indian economy is likely to rebound with an 8.9 per cent growth in the fiscal year beginning April 2021 after economic activity showed significant improvement in the last quarter, IHS Markit said on Friday. The National Statistical Organisation (NSO) on Thursday predicted that the economy will contract 7.7 per cent in the current financial year ending in March, the worst performance in four decades.
Within six months, outlets carrying Vicks jumped from 60,000 pharmacies to 750,000 general stores. The trade boycott collapsed. Consumers were happy, finding Vicks now at every street corner. A fascinating excerpt from Gurcharan Das's Another Sort of Freedom.
'A very large part of this would have come from opium.'
Jagdish Bhagwati, professor of economics and law at Columbia University, tells Nayanima Basu he is not anti-redistribution, adding the crucial issue is where the money would come from.
While India won't be immune to global spillovers, we need to create the macro preconditions for sustained growth. Policy agility, prudence, and resilience will be key, suggests Sonal Varma.
Amid the ongoing festival season and ahead of the elections for five state assemblies, the Centre is closely monitoring inflation, particularly in food items, to enable it to take steps to increase their supplies. "There is a complete no-nonsense attitude when it comes to food inflation, and instructions have been issued at all levels to be very sensitive to any possible price movements in any commodity," a senior official explained. Sources have said that all departments dealing with food items have been instructed to keep a close eye on all commodities and maintain a weekly record of their price movements.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
From Indian poet and philosopher Thiruvalluvar to English great William Shakespeare, Lok Sabha members quoted extensively from literature to put across their arguments as they raised the Manipur issue during a debate on the no-confidence motion over the past two days.
'I want us not to underestimate Indian voters. They can tell good work from bad.'
At a time when the BJP's stars are at the top on the eve of the Lok Sabha polls, the Puri-Joshimath Sankaracharyas may have kick-started a row whose efforts might be to divide Hindus, not in the name of castes, but on what passes for greater belief, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
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